![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Additionally, the price of oil crossed US$100 per barrel mark stoking inflation fears in oil importing countries like India. Russia has launched a military action targeting the military infrastructure of Ukraine and it may lead to a larger scale invasion of Ukraine with the risk of USA and Europe getting embroiled militarily as well. The market has gone down as investors weigh the impact of Russia Ukraine crisis. ~ Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, Julius Baer Any further spikes should translate into more downside, the uncertainty is more about the amplitude and time horizon. That said, oil prices are at economically burdensome levels already, and this usually meant lower prices in longer term. Will the West follow up the escalation with maximum sanctions, despite the heavy economic toll a further spike in oil prices entails? How will China and India engage in the conflict as they pay large parts of the economic costs too? Will the petro-nations bow to the West’s pressure and remove all of the supply restrictions to pump more oil? Will we see a revived nuclear deal and Iran coming back to the oil market as a key exporter? Given all these uncertainties, we revise our price targets. Situations as today’s entail lots of noise and uncertainty, and things could shift into different types of new dynamics. Any disruption of flows between Russia and Europe, due to damage or sanctions, would drastically add to the already present supply scarcity. ![]()
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